Building Permits Extremely Weak, Continue to Fall

Published on September 23, 2011 by

Housing Starts 2009-2011

Home builders and housing permits are not looking very encouraging. Latest reports show that home builders are not very positive on the outlook for the housing economy now or in the near future.

It should come as no surprise that the lack of confidence by the home builders has resulted in less and less housing permits being requested and granted. Home sales have slowed down so much currently and there is very little incentive for builders to be taking risks with the current housing crisis.

With the foreclosures and the deep discounts on distressed properties there are very few that are willing to compete with a new home. Until we see an improvement in the housing market and clear recovery you likely won't see new homes springing up.

Now if you are custom building and hiring out a builder then you are likely going to get a great deal and the builders don't take as many risks with a custom build job. Don't count on seeing too many new homes that are built on speculation in hopes that the perfect buyer will come by and purchase the home that is available.

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If you have any questions about the current status of the housing market and how you may be able to benefit from the buyers market then simply call toll free (866) 825-6261. There is a great opportunity for purchasing and refinancing with the record breaking low interest rates of today.

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Housing Starts Lower While Permits Slightly Increase

Published on August 17, 2011 by

Housing Starts 2009-2011

The housing market is definitely in the dumps. Every part of the market is down, disappointed and not expecting any changes soon, meaning within the next couple of years. The only part of the industry that is improving is the financing side. With interest rates hitting all-time lows the applications for refinancing has picked up significantly.

The latest report which may altogether be completely worthless is the Housing Starts.  The results showcased an improvement of 4.9% with a margin of error at 8.9% so we won’t really know what is happening until several months down the road when they revise the data.

Perhaps the best way for you to know what is happening in your area is to simply observe as you go about your day. For example in my area I’m very surprised if I see a new construction project and it’s been many months since I’ve noticed any single family structures.

The reports are also saying that building permits were slightly higher and this is what was reported:

  • Northeast : +2.9 percent from June
  • Midwest : +0.0 percent from June
  • South : -1.4 percent from June
  • West : +4.9 percent from June

Permits are issued and usually have a good indication as to what the new home market may look like since majority of them will actually break ground and start building within a short time period. Bottomline is simply that the housing market stinks unless you are fortunate enough to qualify for a refinance during this difficult time or you work in the finance sector.

Housing Starts Ramp Up For Fall Season

Published on July 20, 2011 by

 

Single-family housing starts

First builder confidence was up and now they are backing it up with an increase in housing starts. The builders must be planning on a upcoming holiday sale or figured out how to build homes much cheaper. The report shows that Housing Starts increased to 453,000 which is a 9 percent spike and the busiest they have been in over 3 seasons.

For some reason the home builders are anticipating quite a few more sales even though the inventory available continues to increase with additional foreclosures. In addition to more inventory the foreclosures are dragging down the values of homes as well.

For those that are looking to purchase a home at this time with the great value and interest rates you should first get your finances in order and contact a loan officer so you may act quickly and effectively.

Home Builder Confidence Slip Sliding Away

Published on June 21, 2011 by

Homebuilder confidence slips in June 2011

Just when you thought that the home builders confidence would increase it shocks us all and continues to go lower. Previously there were reports about new home sales increasing and building permits increasing and with those two things you would think the home builder confidence would have followed suit.

In addition to the lower confidence it was also the biggest one-month move since May of 2010 when the federal home buyer tax credits expired. With this in mind any one that is looking to capitalize on the opportunity for a new home may be in a much more superior position. Contact a loan officer and get your finances in order first, this should always be your first step when you consider purchasing a home.

Remember the Housing Market Index is compiled with three different and separate surveys to give us the best idea of the home builder’s businesses. The questions for the home builders are listed below:

How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
How is prospective buyer foot traffic?
  1. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
  2. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
  3. How is prospective buyer foot traffic?

The report is scored based on responses and comes in the form of 1-100. Anytime the report is under 50 it is considered unfavorable conditions for the builder. The readings have been well below 50 for quite some time and the last time it was in favor of builders was more then five years ago.

Home affordability continues to improve as we see the prices and interest rates continue to drop. It was always more difficult to have it apply directly to the new homes but with the builder confidence down so low it may create the best opportunity ever to purchase a new home as well.

Housing Starts Increase Slightly But Remain Extremely Low

Published on June 17, 2011 by

Housing Starts (2009-2011)

The housing market has been in the dumps for years now and we are all hoping and looking for signs of hope. Well, here is a small glimmer that things may be improving and not continuing to get worse. I mean nobody knows if we have hit the floor yet.

The housing starts increased this month unexpectedly and although it was slight it was still an improvement. Yes, overall things are still very low but maybe this is the start of movement in a positive direction and hopefully not just an unexpected bump.

The slight improvement is 4 percent to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized rate of 419,000 units and just a little bit better then the 6 month average although the 6 month average is a very low target to surpass.

The reason why this may be a sign of a positive direction and hopefully some recovery in the housing market is that the Building Permits were also up so that is an indication that we could see more improvements in the future.

This report was a surprise to many since it was recently reported that home builder confidence is at its lowest reading since September 2010. Additionally, home sales are slow and many are going to investors who are simply picking up discounted and distressed homes. It doesn’t make a lot of sense for new homes to compete with much of the existing inventory.

If you are looking to capitalize on the low prices and low interest rates contact a loan officer right away and be prepared to move quickly and effectively regardless if you look to purchase a new home or an existing home. Once you are prepared financially you can move forward confidently.

Building Permits Disappearing Quicker Then Expected

Published on May 18, 2011 by

Housing Starts (May 2009-April 2011)

It is becoming a growing concern that the building permits are dropping so quickly and unexpectedly. The Single-Family housing starts was down by 21,000 in comparison to last year this time.

Yes, there is plenty of available housing with the most recent boom but some economists are growing concerned that there will be a future bubble based on the population expectations. The stats are reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

This year the stats are showing a five percent drop in housing starts compared to last year and last year was not a banner year at all. The results of the report are worse than Wall Street was anticipating. This marks the 2nd year in a row where housing starts are below 400,000 units.

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Building permits are issued by local government so it's an easy thing to track and report on. When the permits are down the housing starts are down, usually a house will start construction within 60 days of being issued the permit.

If you are set on purchasing a new home this year then know that the supply will be low as most of the available homes for sale and that are selling are existing homes. If you have questions simply reach out to a loan officer and be prepared to act quickly and effectively when purchasing your new home. There is a lot of hope that the market is recovering and they point towards the increased foot traffic shopping, low mortgage rates and some job growth.

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Anyway you choose to look at things currently it is easy to grasp the concept that home affordability is really good right now. If you are employed and you qualify it's a great time to purchase a home. Contact a loan officer today for your free consultation.

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Nationwide Building Permits On The Rise

Published on April 20, 2011 by

Housing Starts (Apr 2009 - Mar 2011)

The latest report from the Census Bureau shows that single-family Housing Starts are on the rise nationwide, increasing 8 percent over February's 2-year low.

While this all sounds good and promising keep in mind that this is the second straight month where the margin of error is 15 percent which is actually more than the reported measurement.

This is all very humorous considering that written in the footnotes, there's no “statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change [in Housing Starts] is different from zero.”

So, in reality the report even though it's slow and already out dated it's really worthless since the margin of error is so wide. We won't know for several months down the road what the accurate figures are. This is coming in a day after home builders have reported that their sentiment is down nationwide.

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The real value of this information will come when more data is gathered and the report is revised. For instance this past February the housing starts were revised higher by 4.5%.

The latest Census Bureau's report included information that the Building Permits were up in March in comparison to February by 6% nationwide. Statistically once a building permit is issued it will start construction within 60 days.

Building Permits increased in all four regions this past month:

  • Northeast : +2.6 percent from February
  • Midwest : +10.0 percent from February
  • South : +5.3 percent from February
  • West : +5.3 percent from February

If you are looking for a new home the timing is great with house prices and interest rates low. If you have any questions your first step is to contact your loan officer.

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Housing Starts Plummet In February

Published on March 18, 2011 by

Housing Starts (March 2009 - Feb 2011)

Sellers are welcoming the news that housing starts are down for the month in the latest report. With less housing starts there will be less competition for those who are looking to sell their existing homes.

The drop in housing starts was completely unexpected. Nationwide the housing starts fell by 12 percent from the previous month. There was an even bigger drop in housing starts if you compare to last year it’s a drop of 29 percent.

This latest report represents the worst 1 month drop in housing starts since May 2010 and that ended up being a 24 month low. Additionally Building Permits plunged as well by 9 percent from the previous month.

For any home buyers that were looking to purchase a new home this year this news should impact your decision. With less homes being built and available you can expect the builders to have a bit more leverage in negotiations.

Home prices are always based on supply and demand and the latest reports will definitely be a positive for home builders. Interest rates are expected to continue to rise although there has been a slight dip due to recent geopolitical issues and natural disasters.

The current market reflects that home affordability is high with low prices and low mortgage rates. If you would like free assistance in planning your mortgage future simply contact a loan officer today.

Single-Family Housing Starts Reports Wrong, It’s Declining

Published on February 17, 2011 by

Housing starts September 2008 - August 2010

The nations housing starts for single family homes dropped 1 percent during the month of January to only 413,000 units. This is the lowest reading in almost 2 years.

A “Housing Start” is defined as a home on which construction has started.

This is not the first time that data and reports have been selectively shared or pitched to the public. If you saw the Housing Starts stories in the headlines today you would not likely realize that they are declining.

If you have seen some kind of news or headlines talking about Housing Starts Jump 14.6% and mentioning that they are at their highest level in 4 years, it’s true but it’s very misleading as well.

How does this happen? Why can’t you believe what you are seeing in the headlines? The Census Bureau reports on Housing Starts by several different property types including single family, multi family, and apartments. The media will often report them all as one.

This lumping of all of the categories together is useful for a few investors that consider it when investing in home builder stocks, for the average consumer and majority of buyers it can be very misleading. So take a closer look at the different categories and how the data an information may be valuable to you specifically:

  • Single-Family Homes : Down 4,000 units, or -1%
  • 2-4 Unit Homes : Negligible change
  • Apartment Buildings : Up 46,000 units, or +80%

It’s easy to look at the three categories above and see why the news is coming up with their positive numbers by making it all one category. It’s also very easy to see the rapid “jump” in Home Starts is due to the incredible increase in buildings that are 5 units or more.

Maybe the most frustrating part of all of the data, reports and news headlines is the ability to track the accuracy of the data. A footnote in the report from the government says that there is a margin of error of ±8.6%. So, if the House Starts for single family units is down one percent it could actually be much worse considering the margin of error.

Bottom line is we will not know what the real numbers are until the revisions come out later in the year. Take a look at the area where you are looking to purchase a home and work with professionals to make an informed decision. Also, remember that even if you are considering a new purchase you will want to work with a loan officer from the beginning to make the purchase process as easy as possible.

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